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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "Morning-line odds: 30-1
Post position: 4
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 0 seconds, 2 thirds
Earnings: $261,885
Jockey: Rene Douglas
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm
Breeder: Mr. and Mrs. Samuel H. Rogers Jr. (Fla.)
Pedigree: Chapel Royal/Word o’ Wisdom (Hennessy)
Key facts: Captured the Lexington-Coolmore Stakes (Gr. 2) at Keeneland at 15-1 on April 18 to punch his ticket to the Derby. As the price indicated, he’s a late-developing 3-year-old who is improving at the right time. Like many entrants, he must show that can run as well on the dirt as he can on the synthetic surfaces, as his only race over the dirt he finished a well-beaten fifth in the Sunland Derby, which isn’t considered a major prep for the Run for the Roses.
Watch Advice win the Lexington Stakes";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 50-1
Post position: 14
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 1 win, 3 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $118,940
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Owner: George and Lori Hall
Breeder: William L.S. Landes III, Laura Landes and Sarah Landese (Ky.)
Pedigree: Smart Strike/Paradise Pond (Cox’s Ridge)
Key facts: Late entrant will run coupled with West Side Bernie. Colt finished fourth, beaten 4 ¾ lengths, in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 1). Chart notes that he was boxed in rounding the far turn, so maybe that cost him a couple lengths. But he’d have to make up quite a few more to erase the gap with I Want Revenge, who won the Wood despite encountering all sorts of trouble.";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Chocolate Candy","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/090426/chocolate-candy.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Kevork Djansezian", "Getty Images", "230", "360", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 20-1
Post position: 11
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 4 wins, 2 seconds, 1 thirds
Earnings: $532,500
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Owner: Sid and Jenny Craig Trust
Breeder: Sid and Jenny Craig (Ky.)
Pedigree: Candy Ride *Arg./Crownette (Seattle Slew)
Key facts: Runner-up to Pioneerof the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1), beaten only a length. Savvy trainer gave three-time stakes winner seven-week vacation before that race in order to have him fresh for the Triple Crown races, so he has room for improvement off that last race and seems a live long shot. Biggest question mark is his lack of experience on dirt tracks, which he’ll be running on Saturday.
";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 15-1
Post position: 19
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $688,467
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Owner: Godolphin
Breeder: David Smith and Steve Sinatra (Ky.)
Pedigree: Street Cry *Ire./Sage Cat (Tobasco Cat)
Key facts: One of two Godolphin runners expected to try America’s best after prepping in Dubai. This colt began his career in the U.S. and won the Sanford Stakes (Gr. 2) at Saratoga in his second start before being purchased by Godolphin, the racing operation founded by Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. As a 3-year-old, Desert Party won an allowance race and the U.A.E. 2000 Guineas (Gr. 3) before running second to stablemate Regal Ransom in the U.A.E. Derby (Gr. 2). He’s been training strongly since arriving at Churchill Downs.";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Dunkirk","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/getty/gyi0057071569.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Matthew Stockman", "Getty Images", "273", "183", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 4-1
Post position: 15
Lifetime starts: 3
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $193,200
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Mrs. John Magnier Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Breeder: W.S. Farish, James Elkins and Temple Webber Jr. (Ky.)
Pedigree: Unbridled’s Song/Secret Status (A.P. Indy)
Key facts: Lightly raced colt has a world of talent, but his lack of experience will cause some to shy away from him on the first Saturday in May. A $3.7 million purchase at the Keeneland September Sale, Dunkirk did not race at 2 but captured his first two starts at 3 handily at Gulfstream Park. He followed that up with a runner-up finish to Quality Road in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1) on a day when his come-from-behind style may have been hampered by a speed-favoring Gulfstream track. If he captures the Derby, he’ll be the first horse to do so without racing at 2 since Apollo in 1882. ";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Flying Private","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/apmegasports/200904261237454273386-pf.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Garry Jones", "AP", "273", "362", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 50-1
Post position: 20
Lifetime starts: 10
Record: 1 win, 4 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $193,080
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Owner: Grand Slam Farm
Breeder: John and Martha Jane Mulholland (Ky)
Pedigree: Fusaichi Pegasus/Beautiful Treasure (Unbridled)
Key facts: Colt has but a single victory to his credit from 10 starts, but he does have four runner-up finishes, including a second to Hold Me Back in the Lane’s End Stakes (Gr. 2) at Turfway Park in his only try over a synthetic track. Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has never been one to shy away from taking a shot in the Derby, and has four wins from a record 42 starters.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Projected odds: 5-1
Post position: 6
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $603,265
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Trainer: Larry Jones
Owner: Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm
Breeder: Grapestock LLC (Ky.)
Pedigree: A.P. Indy/Bollinger *Aus. (Dehere)
Key facts: Swept the prep races at the Fair Grounds – the LeComte (Gr. 3), the Risen Star (Gr. 3) and the Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2) – the first horse to accomplish that since Dixieland Heat in 1993. Seven-week break since the Louisiana Derby is an unorthodox way to get ready for the Kentucky Derby, but trainer, who also conditioned the ill-fated Eight Belles, has shown he knows how to get his horses to give their best on the first Saturday in May.";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","General Quarters","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/apmegasports/200904261245459243418-pf.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "273", "353", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 20-1
Post position: 12
Lifetime starts: 11
Record: 3 wins, 3 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $641,735
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Thomas R. McCarthy
Owner: Thomas R. McCarthy
Breeder: Mr. and Mrs. R. David Randal (Ky.)
Pedigree: Sky Mesa/Ecology (Unbridled’s Song)
Key facts: Runaway winner for best storyline in this year’s field, as colt’s trainer and owner is a retired Louisville school principal who made the Derby with the only horse he trains. Horse earned his way with upset victories in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland and the Sam F. Davis Stakes (Gr. 3) at Tampa Bay Downs. With 11 starts, he also is the most experienced colt in the field.
Watch General Quarters win the Blue Grass Stakes";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 15-1
Post position: 5
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $487,274
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: WinStar Farm
Breeder: Haras Santa Maria de Araras S.A. and WinStar Farm (Ky.)
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway/Restraint (Unbridled’s Song)
Key facts: Deep closer captured the Lane’s End Stakes (Gr. 2) at Turfway Park and followed that up with a runner-up finish to General Quarters in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland. Colt has been patiently handled by high-profile connections and with just two starts at 3 he’s eligible to show continued improvement. His affinity for Churchill’s dirt track is a concern, though, as he turned in the worst performance of his career the only time he ran on dirt, in last year in the Remsen Stakes (Gr. 2) at Aqueduct.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 50-1
Post position: 9
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 1 wins, 3 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $164,220
Jockey: Chris DeCarlo
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Jake Ballis, R. Ballis, R. Lewis, R. Swinbank and William Swinbank
Breeder: The Answer LLC (Ky.)
Pedigree: Sky Mesa/Dance Darling (Devil’s Bag)
Key facts: Cracked the starting lineup only after the defections of Quality Road and Square Eddie. Finished only a neck behind Musket Man when second in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. 3), but then faded to finish fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1), five lengths behind General Quarters. Colt adds speed to a lineup that is has only one other confirmed front-runner – Regal Ransom – and that alone makes him an interesting outsider.";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Mine That Bird","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/apmegasports/200904251154428550425-pf.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "271", "368", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 50-1
Post position: 8
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $374,381
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: Bennie Woolley
Owner: Double Eagle Ranch and Bueno Suerte Equine
Breeder: Lamantia, Blackburn and Needham; Betz Thoroughbreds (Ky.)
Pedigree: Birdstone/Mining My Own (Smart Strike)
Key facts: Colt had sufficient graded stakes earnings to crack the field from a win in the Grey Stakes (Gr. 3) in Canada at 2. He arrives at Churchill Downs via a very unorthodox route: two stakes races at Sunland Park in New Mexico in which he finished second and fourth. He’ll be facing much tougher competition now, so he’ll have to improve by light years to make an impact.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 30-1
Post position: 3
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 1 win, 0 seconds, 3 thirds
Earnings: $150,560
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Owner: WinStar Farm
Breeder: WinStar Farm (Ky.)
Pedigree: Tiznow/Sweet Damsel (Turkoman)
Key facts: Full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby second choice Colonel John was a closing third in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 1), two lengths behind winner Pioneerof the Nile. That move at 1 1/8 miles suggests the 1 ¼ miles of the Derby will be right in his wheelhouse. Would like to see a fast pace to set up his late charge, though, and I’m not sure he’s going to get that.";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Musket Man","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/apmegasports/200904290737274598780-pf.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Charlie Riedel", "AP", "273", "365", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 20-1
Post position: 2
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 5 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $572,600
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Trainer: Derek Ryan
Owners: Eric Fein and Vic Carlson
Breeder: Jim E. Nelson & Sergio De Sousa (Ky)
Pedigree: Yonaguska/Fortuesque (Fortunate Prospect)
Key facts: Rodney Dangerfield colt keeps on winning without gaining the respect he deserves. Annexed the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. 3) and the Illinois Derby (Gr. 2) after suffering his lone career setback in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing third behind General Quarters. Biggest concern is his breeding, as sire Yonaguska isn’t renowned for producing marathon runners.
Watch Musket Man win the Illinois Derby";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 50-1
Post position: 18
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $100,099
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Trainer: Nick Zito
Owner: My Meadowview Farm
Breeder: Robert Raphaelson (Ky.)Pedigree: Vindication/Stirring (Seeking the Gold)
Key facts: Hate to second guess a Hall of Fame trainer, particularly one who pulled off an upset with 30-1 shot Da’Tara in last year’s Belmont Stakes, but this colt hasn’t been able to handle Musket Man or Friesan Fire the three times he’s encountered them. His most recent run-in with the former was his worst effort of the trio, as he finished fourth, beaten 11 ¼ lengths behind the winner. Pass.
";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Papa Clem","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/getty/gyi0057272018.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Andy Lyons", "Getty Images", "269", "368", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 20-1
Post position: 7
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $790,940
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Gary Stute
Owner: Bo Hirsch
Breeder: Bo Hirsch (Ky)
Pedigree: Smart Strike/Miss Houdini (Belong to Met)
Key facts: Colt headed east from California to finish second to Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2) and first in the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 2). Those performances flattered the California form, as he finished a half length by Pioneerof the Nile and a length in front of I Want Revenge in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Gr. 2) at Santa Anita before leaving. Like I Want Revenge, he’s proven he handles the dirt just fine and might just be overlooked in the betting.
Watch Papa Clem win the Arkansas Derby";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Pioneerof the Nile","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/ap/a2c249db-a306-4e26-957f-b6338a30121b.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "273", "226", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 4-1
Post position: 16
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 5 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $1,234,200
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Zayat Stables
Breeder: Zayat Stables (Ky.)
Pedigree: Empire Maker/Star of Goshen (Lord at War *Arg.)
Key facts: Winner of four straight graded stakes in Southern California, capped by the prestigious Santa Anita Derby (Gr. 3). With high-profile connections, he’d likely be favored if he had ever raced on dirt. But questions about his ability to transfer his form from the synthetic racing surfaces of California will likely make him the second or third choice in Louisville. Strong-headed colt also needs to keep his cool when the dirt hits him in the face for the first time.
Watch Pioneerof the Nile win the Santa Anita Derby";
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i++] = new Array("","Regal Ransom","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/MSNBC/Components/Photo/090426/regal-ransom.hsmall.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "", "Ahmed Jadallah", "Reuters", "230", "360", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 30-1
Post position: 10
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 2 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $1,297,200
Jockey: Alan Garcia
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Owner: Godolphin
Breeder: Diamond A. Racing Corp. (Ky.)
Pedigree: Distorted Humor/Kelli’s Ransom (Red Ransom)
Key facts: Second member of Team Godolphin boasts some serious early speed. He used that to good effect in surprising stablemate Desert Party in the U.A.E. Derby (Gr. 2) in Dubai after losing to that colt in their prior two meetings. This colt stands to benefit if Quality Road’s foot problems get the better of him, as it could leave him as the lone speed horse in the field. ";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 50-1
Post position: 17
Lifetime starts: 3
Record: 1 win, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $123,040
Jockey: Chris Rosier
Trainer: Tim Ice
Owners: Drs. Kalarikkal K. and Vilasini Jayaraman
Breeder: Kalarikkal K. and Vilasini Jayaraman (Ky)
Pedigree: Birdstone/Hong Kong Squall (Summer Squall)
Key facts: Lightly raced colt earned his chance by finishing a fast-closing third in the Arkansas Derby (Gr. 2) despite breaking slowly. Limited experience and his deep closer running style are causes for concern in a crowded Derby field, but his sire’s victory in the 1 ½-mile Belmont Stakes suggests that the distance won’t be a problem. He figures to be flying in the stretch and could threaten with a clean trip. ";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Morning-line odds: 30-1
Post position: 1
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 2 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $407,360
Jockey: Stewart Elliott
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Owners: George and Lori Hall
Breeder: Polo Green Stable and Andrew Savas (Ky.)
Pedigree: Bernstein/Time Honored (Gilded Time)
Key facts: Runner-up to I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 1), but, as mentioned above, the winner had tons of trouble and West Side Bernie had a pretty good trip. On the plus side, that was just his second start since January, so he’s eligible to improve. And he did win a graded stakes at 2, taking down the Kentucky Cup Juvenile (Gr. 3) at Turfway Park. A long shot, but an interesting one.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
The Kentucky Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race for 3-year-olds on the dirt track, which is composed of 75 percent sand, 20 percent silt, and 5 percent clay. The race begins at the top of the stretch, which gives jockeys time to move their mounts in to save ground before the first turn. But with a full field of 20 starters expected, horses that start outside still risk giving up valuable ground around the turns, and horses on the inside are in danger of getting squeezed as the pack tightens up. The early fractions of the Derby are usually quick and the stretch is long -- 1,234 feet – both of which tend to favor runners that come from off the pace.";
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There is no limit on the factors that can be considered in handicapping a race — some experts even try to compensate for the wind when evaluating a previous performance by a horse. But for today, let's confine ourselves to six of the most important considerations.
Click on factors at left to learn more.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
A handicapper who can correctly predict how a race will be run has a much better chance of winning than the horseplayer with no idea which horses will go to the front, which will challenge the leaders turning for home and which will attempt to run down the leaders in the final strides.
The reason, as handicapping pioneer Huey Mahl put it, is that pace makes the race.
The basic theory of pace handicapping is this: The faster a horse runs at the beginning of a race, the less energy it will have for the stretch run. As a general rule, a race in which three or more horses battle for the lead will result in a faster-than-average early pace and set the stage for a come-from-behind horse to win. Conversely, a race in which a lone horse is allowed to set a comfortable pace tends to favor the front-runner or horses that can stay within a length or two of the lead.
The pace of this year’s race figures to be slower than the average of 1:11 for the first 6 furlongs, with just one confirmed front-runner, Regal Ransom, in the field.
So we’ll give a big plus to Regal Ransom and lesser pushes to the seven horses who like to race close to the pace: Desert Party, Friesan Fire, General Quarters, I Want Revenge, Mine That Bird, Papa Clem and Square Eddie.
We’ll give neutral ratings to the horses that will race in midpack early – Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, Flying Private, Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile and West Side Bernie.
The remainder of the field gets a negative rating in his category.
";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
When racetrackers talk about a horse’s class, they are talking about a combination of natural ability, consistency and heart. Handicappers have tried different approaches to quantify it, such as average earnings per start or the number of victories in Grade I stakes races, which draw the very best horses.
No matter how you define it, though, the Derby has proven a stern class test for young horses who have never run this far. History says it is advisable to favor horses who have raced well against top competition as 2-year-olds -- as measured by a good effort in at least one graded stakes race -- and who have returned to run credibly in similar situations in their 3-year-old year.
Give plusses in this category to Advice, Chocolate Candy, Desert Party, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, Square Eddie and West Side Bernie.
Neutrals for Friesan Fire and Mine That Bird, both of whom narrowly missed qualifying in this category.
Negatives to the rest of the field.
";
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spt_KentuckyDerby09[i-1].body = "
Pedigree analysis has lost a lot of its luster in recent years, when several horses whose bloodlines said they would never last 1 1/4 miles nevertheless captured the Derby.
But given the performance of the \"dosage\" index and \"center of distribution\" model over previous decades, it’s probably wise not to dismiss this line of inquiry just yet.
This is why it pays to have at least a passing acquaintance with such arcane terms as \"dosage\" and \"dual qualifier.\"
-- Dosage, a way of measuring stamina in a pedigree, has proven to be a good yardstick for the Kentucky Derby, with 22 of the 26 winners having a dosage index of 4.00 or less since 1981. As usual, the category isn’t much help this year, since most contenders are below the cutoff of 4.00. Only Win Willy (5.00) misses the mark, though Musket Man just squeeks under the wire at 4.00.
-- A related indicator -- is the dual qualifier method, which requires that a horse have the proper dosage and to have been within 10 pounds of the high-weight on the Experimental Free Handicap as a 2-year-old. (The Experimental Free Handicap is an attempt by a panel of experts to even out horses in a particular class by assigning greater weights to the best horses and less to their inferiors, so horses within 10 pounds of the 2007 2-year-old high-weight are those who raced successfully against tough competition.) This year, there are five dual qualifiers in the field: Square Eddie, Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy and West Side Bernie.
A word of caution: Many experts are not sold on the dual-qualifier method because it penalizes lightly raced, improving horses like 1992 Derby winner Lil E. Tee and 1997 Derby winner Grindstone.
In any case, we’ll give plusses in this category to the five dual qualifiers, a negative to Win Willy and neutrals to the remainder of the field.
";
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Form -- shorthand for the way a horse has run in its most recent races -- looks deceptively simple to evaluate, but this factor contains numerous traps for the handicapper.
Although it's better to enter a big race off several strong efforts, horses are not machines and there is no guarantee that a contestant's last race will be repeated on race day.
Likewise, horses that have run poorly in their recent races can suddenly rediscover that winning formula (Remember 1995 winner Thunder Gulch, who captured the Derby at odds of better than 24-1 after finishing off the board in the Blue Grass Stakes in his prior start?). And there's always the dangerous improving horse, who can turn in the race of a lifetime when you least suspect it.
Nonetheless, horses who enter the Derby off several strong efforts (finishing within 2 lengths of the winner) in recent races receive high marks in this category: Chocolate Candy, Desert Party, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Hold Me Back, I Want Revenge, Musket Man, Pioneerof the Nile, Square Eddie and Summer Bird.
Neutral ratings for horses with one good race in their last two starts: Advice, Flying Private, General Quarters, Mine That Bird, Mr. Hot Stuff, Papa Clem, Regal Ransom, West Side Bernie and Win Willy.
There are no negatives to hand out in this category this year.
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The Derby points a white-hot spotlight on riders, and it can be dazzling to those who never have stood in its glare before. Being tongue-tied in interviews is one thing, but if a rider's nervousness and excitement makes even the slightest impact on his or her judgment, the results on the racetrack are likely to be disappointing.
We’ll give horses whose riders have positive Derby experience – i.e. have come close without winning – a passing grade. That covers Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez); Flying Private (Robby Albarado); Freisan Fire (Gabriel Saez), and Mr. Hot Stuff (John Velazquez). Also, I’m going to make an exception and put the horse ridden by two-time Eclipse Award winning rider Garrett Gomez – Pioneerof the Nile -- in this category as well.
We’ll give horses whose riders have positive Derby experience – i.e. have come close without winning – a passing grade. That covers Desert Party (Ramon Dominguez); Flying Private (Robby Albarado); and Freisan Fire (Gabriel Saez). Also, I’m going to make an exception and put the horse ridden by two-time Eclipse Award winning rider Garrett Gomez – Pioneerof the Nile -- in this category as well.
Negative marks for the others, whose riders have either finished up the track or have never experienced the thrill of the “fastest two minutes in sports.”
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Unlike the jockeys, who will make any mistakes in the blink of an eye, trainers make their errors – if any – in the weeks before the race.
Some fine horsemen and horsewomen have been thrown off their game by the unaccustomed scrutiny they face once it becomes clear that there’s a legitimate Derby prospect in the barn. Suddenly, instead of the quiet thudding of hoofbeats, the trainer is facing a phalanx of microphones and fielding endless questions about everything from choice of horseshoes to whether that last workout wasn’t just a tad bit slow.
The bottom line is that some trainers will become overly cautious in their preparations, overlooking an important detail or forgetting to pass a key piece of information to an exercise rider. The result may not be disastrous, but even the slightest misstep can be enough to get your horse beat.
Even better than having survived previous Derbies is having won one or more races. That marks that rare trainer who will have his runner tuned up like a Maseratti on the first Saturday in May.
Give plusses to the horses in this year’s field whose trainers have Derby wins on their resume: Flying Private (D. Wayne Lukas) and Pioneerof the Nile (Bob Baffert).
Slight deductions go to the horses whose trainers either have positive Triple Crown experience or have shined in such high-profile spots as the Breeders’ Cup: Advice and Dunkirk (Todd Pletcher); Desert Party and Regal Ransom (Saeed bin Suroor); Friesan Fire (Larry Jones); Hold Me Back (Bill Mott); Mr. Hot Stuff (Eoin Harty); and Square Eddie (Doug O’Neill).
All others draw a negative in this category.
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