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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds.
Earnings: $387,700
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Trainer: Graham Motion
Owner: Courtland Farms
Pedigree: A.P. Indy/Gold Canyon (Mr. Prospector)
Key facts: Easy winner of the Lane’s End Stakes (Gr. 2) over the quirky Keeneland Polytrack surface was pointed for the Derby only after testing the dirt surface at Churchill Downs. That’s because his only other try on dirt, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, was awful. Top jock Prado chose this one over contenders Monba and Tale of Ekati, though.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Anak Nakal","","","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Andy Lyons", "Getty Images", "110", "76", "", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 30-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $243,416
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Nick Zito
Owner: Four Roses Thoroughbreds.
Pedigree: Victory Gallop/Misk (Quiet American)
Key facts: Colt has yet to display the sharp form he showed at 2, which included a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. He has been improving with each start this year though -- he was only beaten by 3 1/2 lengths in the Wood Memorial in his last race, his first with blinkers -- so he could be primed for a big effort in Louisville.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Big Brown","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Big%20Brown.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Tom Cooley", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 3-1
Lifetime starts: 3
Record: 3 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $662,700
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Richard Dutrow Jr.
Owner: IEAH and Paul Pompa Jr.
Pedigree: Boundary/Mien (Nureyev)
Key facts: Likely Derby favorite never has been challenged in three starts, including an impressive romp in the Florida Derby (Gr. 1) when starting from the unfavorable 12 post. The big question is his lack of seasoning. If he wins, he’ll be the first horse to wear the roses since the filly Regret won off just three starts in 1915.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Big Truck","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Big%20Truck.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Matthew Stockman", "Getty Images", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 50-1
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $336,880
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Owner: Eric Fein
Pedigree: Hook and Ladder/Just a Ginny (Go for Gin)
Key facts: New York-bred colt won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), beating juvenile champ War Pass. But he came back to run poorly in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland, probably because he didn’t handle the Polytrack surface. He’s relatively experienced, with eight starts, and has trainer who handled 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide in his corner.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Bob Black Jack","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Bob%20Black%20Jack.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $442,925
Jockey: Richard Migliore
Trainer: James Kasparoff
Owner: Jeff Harmon and Tim Kasparoff
Pedigree: Stormy Jack/Molly’s Prospector (Native Prospector)
Key facts: Fleet-footed California-based colt figures to be one of the Derby pace-setters, but he’s no one-dimensional speedball. Likely Derby second-choice Colonel John had to work very hard to get past him in the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby (Gr.1) in April. Like several other Derby horses, however, he’s never run on a dirt surface before.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Colonel John","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Colonel%20John.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 4-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 4 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $825,300
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Trainer: Eoin Harty
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Pedigree: Tiznow/Sweet Damsel (Turkoman)
Key facts: Santa Anita Derby winner and likely second choice in the betting has been a model of consistency, never finishing worse than second. Colt possesses good late kick and is bred to handle the distance. The one overriding question is how will he react to the dirt track at Churchill Downs, as all of his starts have come on artificial racing surfaces.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Cool Coal Man","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Cool%20Coal%20Man.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Adam Coglianese", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $307,531
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Trainer: Nick Zito
Owner: Robert LaPenta
Pedigree: Mineshaft/Coral Sea (Rubiano)
Key facts: Colt was the pleasant surprise of the spring for Nick Zito, who needed one as War Pass stumbled and then fell off the Derby trail. But then came the Blue Grass Stakes, in which Cool Coal Man and several other top contenders finished far back on Keeneland’s Polytrack. He’ll offer good value if you’re willing to toss that one out.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
Earnings: $367,542
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: IEAH Stables and Winstar Farm
Pedigree: Gulch/Weekend Storm (Storm Bird)
Key facts: Closer got close to winner Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 1) in his second start of the year. He should get a decent setup with a quick pace shaping up for the Derby, but he’s also likely to lose a lot of ground due to his habit of running wide on the final turn. Happily, he gets the services of last year’s Eclipse Award winning rider.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $314,708
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Stonerside Stable
Pedigree: Giant’s Causeway/Texas Tammy (Seeking the Gold)
Key facts: Was a game runner-up to stablemate Monba in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) at Keeneland in his most recent start. He has spent most of his career running on the turf, so the big question is how he’ll handle running on the dirt for just the second time. His first try on dirt, in his debut last year at Saratoga, was dismal, as he faded badly sprinting.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Denis of Cork","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Denis%20of%20Cork.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Danny Johnston", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 4
Record: 3 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $213,552
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Trainer: David Carroll
Owner: Mr. and Mrs. William K. Warren Jr.
Pedigree: Harlan’s Holiday/Unbridled Girl (Unbridled)
Key facts: Looked like he could be any kind after easily winning the Southwest Stakes (Gr. 3) at Oaklawn Park in his first try against stakes company. But trainer and owner kept him out of the Rebel Stakes and then watched the colt run flat as day-old champagne in the Illinois Derby. He’s light on experience but long on talent and could be a factor.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 15-1
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 5 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $308,650
Jockey: Gabe Saez
Trainer: Larry Jones
Owner: Fox Hill Farms
Pedigree: Unbridled’s Song/Away (Dixieland Band)
Key facts: Filly is riding a four-race win streak. Connections say they will enter her in both the Kentucky Oaks and the Derby, then decide based on where they draw the better post position. If she goes in the latter, she’ll be seeking to become the fourth filly to win the Run for the Roses, joining the illustrious Regret, Genuine Risk and Winning Colors. ";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Gayego","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Gayego.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Danny Johnston", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 15-1
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $723,420
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Apulo Lobo
Owner: Cubanacan Stables
Pedigree: Gilded Time/Devils Lake (Lost Code)
Key facts: Arkansas Derby (Gr. 2) winner showed he can handle dirt just fine in first start off California’s artificial racing surfaces. His pedigree doesn’t indicate he’ll be well suited to the marathon distances of the Derby, but he’s a hard-trying son of a gun who has never been beaten by more than a length, and he just might outrun his bloodlines. ";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Monba","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Monba.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 15-1
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 3 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $577,534
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Stable, Lucarelli and Saylor
Pedigree: Maria’s Mon/Hamba (Easy Goer)
Key facts: Won the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1) by outgaming stablemate Cowboy Cal in the stretch at Keeneland. Unlike some other runners who prepped on artificial surfaces, this colt is a proven commodity on dirt and owns a win at Churchill Downs last year. Has plenty of upside and is capable of making presence felt if he continues to improve.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Pyro","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Pyro.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Lou Hodges Jr.", "AP file", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 6-1
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $1,056,718
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC
Pedigree: Pulpit/Wild Vision (Wild Again)
Key facts: Closer was toast of the town after winning the Risen Star Stakes (Gr. 3) and the Louisiana Derby (Gr. 2) at the Fair Grounds, but many now just consider him toast after his unbelievably poor effort in the Blue Grass Stakes – 10th, beaten 11 1/2 lengths – on Polytrack in his last start. Expect him to return to top form with return to dirt.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds
Earnings: $333,080
Jockey: E.T. Baird
Trainer: Louis Roussel III
Owner: Louis Roussel III and Ronald Lemarque
Pedigree: Cherokee Run/Cold Awakening (Dehere)
Key facts: Colt ran big to capture the Illinois Derby (G2) gate to wire in his first try against graded stakes company. On the downside, both his wins have come at Hawthorne racetrack, which means he’s 0-for-4 elsewhere. Trainer campaigned 1988 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Risen Star, so he knows what to do when he gets a good one.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 2 thirds
Earnings: $395,500
Jockey: Manoel Cruz
Trainer: Bennie Stutts Jr.
Owner: Mount Joy Stables
Pedigree: Smooth Jazz/Air France (French Deputy)
Key facts: Colt finished second to likely Derby favorite Big Brown in the Florida Derby, five lengths behind at the wire. Derby winners like Funny Cide and Grindstone have avenged prep losses in Louisville. He’s one of the more consistent runners in the field, never having finished off the board, but he’s also never won beyond 7 furlongs.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 15-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $769,200
Jockey: Eibar Coa
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Owner: Charles Fipke
Pedigree: Tale of the Cat/Silence Beauty (Sunday Silence)
Key facts: Got back on track with hard-fought victory over juvenile champ War Pass in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 1) at Aqueduct. The winning time of the race was the slowest since 1952, but the track was drying out from heavy rains and likely was much slower than usual. Also, that was just his second start at 3, so he has room for improvement. ";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Visionaire ","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Visionaire.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 20-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $250,760
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Trainer: Michael Matz
Owner: Team Valor International and Vision Racing LLC
Pedigree: Grand Slam/Scarlet Tango (French Deputy)
Key facts: Winner of the fogged-in Gotham Stakes (Gr. 2) ran fifth, beaten 6 1/4 lengths, in the Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. 1). That was a much better effort than the finish would suggest, since colt was 10 wide entering the stretch and was the only horse making up much ground on the winner. Via trainer, also has Barbaro karma working for him.";
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("","Z Fortune","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photo_StoryLevel/April/080422/Brill-Horseracing/brill-Z%20Fortune.htease.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Lou Hodges Jr.", "AP", "104", "148", "#000000", "", "", "", "");
spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 15-1
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $278386,600
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Zayat Stables LLC
Pedigree: Siphon/Fortunate Faith (Fortunate Prospect)
Key facts: New York-bred colt has quietly put together a nice resumé, winning the LeComte Stakes (Gr. 3) and registering good runner-up efforts in the Risen Star Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2). He likes to lay back and make a late run, so he should be aided by anticipated strong early pace and is playable at good odds.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Odds: 30-1
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 2 wins, 0 seconds, 3 thirds
Earnings: $621,450
Jockey: Rene Douglas
Trainer: Bill Mott
Owner: Zayat Stables
Pedigree: Distorted Humor/Offtheoldblock (A.P. Indy)
Key facts: Has earnings to crack the Derby lineup courtesy of his dead-heat victory in the $1 million Delta Jackpot (Gr. 3) in December, but has been well-beaten in all three starts this year. His last race, a third behind Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby (Gr. 2), was his best effort of ’08, though, so at least he appears headed in the right direction. ";
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The Kentucky Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race for 3-year-olds on the dirt track, which is composed of 75 percent sand, 20 percent silt and 5 percent clay. The race begins at the top of the stretch, which gives jockeys time to move their mounts in before the first turn. But with a full field of 20 starters, horses that start outside risk being caught wide, and horses on the inside are in danger of getting squeezed as the pack tightens up. The early fractions of the Derby are usually quick and the stretch is long -- 1,234 feet -- both of which favor runners that come from off the pace.";
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There is no limit on the factors that can be considered in handicapping a race — some experts even try to compensate for the wind when evaluating a previous performance by a horse. But for today, let's confine ourselves to six of the most important considerations.
Click on factors at left to learn more.";
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A handicapper who can correctly predict how a race will be run has a much better chance of winning than the horseplayer with no idea which horses will go to the front, which will challenge the leaders turning for home and which will attempt to run down the leaders in the final strides.
The reason, as handicapping pioneer Huey Mahl put it, is that pace makes the race.
The basic theory of pace handicapping is this: The faster a horse runs at the beginning of a race, the less energy it will have for the stretch run. As a general rule, a race in which three or more horses battle for the lead will result in a faster-than-average early pace and set the stage for a come-from-behind horse to win. Conversely, a race in which a lone horse is allowed to set a comfortable pace tends to favor the front-runner or horses that can stay within a length or two of the lead.
The departure of injured War Pass changed the pace complexion in the Derby, but there are still three confirmed front-runners in the field – Recapturetheglory, Bob Black Jack and Massive Drama (if he goes) -- and six horses who like to race close to the pace – Big Brown, Cool Coal Man, Cowboy Cal, Eight Belles (if she goes) and Z Humor.
That suggests the pace is likely to be faster than average (1:11 for 6 furlongs).
So we’ll give plusses to the closers in the field – Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Pyro and Visionaire.
Neutral ratings for the horses who will race in midpack early -- Adriano, Anak Nakal, Big Truck, Colonel John, Monba, Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati and Z Fortune.
The remainder of the field gets a negative rating in his category.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
When racetrackers talk about a horse’s class, they are talking about a combination of natural ability, consistency and heart. Handicappers have tried different approaches to quantify it, such as average earnings per start or the number of victories in Grade I stakes races, which draw the very best horses.
No matter how you define it, though, the Derby has proven a stern class test for young horses who have never run this far. History says it is advisable to favor horses who have raced well against top competition as 2-year-olds -- as measured by a good effort in at least one graded stakes race -- and who have returned to run credibly in similar situations in their 3-year-old year.
Give plusses in this category to Colonel John, Court Vision, Halo Najib, Monba, Pyro and Tale of Ekati.
The slightest of deductions go to Smooth Air, who only missed qualifying by 5 days by virtue of his win in the Hutcheson Stakes (Gr. 2), and Anak Nakal, who only needed to finish a half-length closer in the Wood Memorial (Gr. 1).
Negatives to the rest of the field.";
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spt_KentuckyDerby08[i-1].body = "
Pedigree analysis has lost a lot of its luster in recent two years, when several horses whose bloodlines said they would never last 1 1/4 miles nevertheless captured the Derby.
But given the performance of the \"dosage\" index and \"center of distribution\" model over previous decades, it’s probably wise not to dismiss this line of inquiry just yet.
This is why it pays to have at least a passing acquaintance with such arcane terms as \"dosage\" and \"dual qualifier.\"
-- Dosage, a way of measuring stamina in a pedigree, has proven an accurate yardstick, as all but four Derby winners since 1929 has had a “dosage index” of 4.00 or less (Strike The Gold interrupted the streak in 1991, followed by victories by Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999) and Giacomo (2005). As usual, the category isn’t much help this year, since most contenders are below the cutoff of 4.00. Only Bob Black Jack (4.33), Gayego (4.33) and Recapturetheglory (5.00) are over the cutoff, though Anak Nakal is right at it (4.00).
-- A related indicator to the dosage index is the \"dual qualifier\" method, which requires that a horse have the proper dosage and to have been within 10 pounds of the high-weight on the Experimental Free Handicap as a 2-year-old. (The Experimental Free Handicap is an attempt by a panel of experts to even out horses in a particular class by assigning greater weights to the best horses and less to their inferiors, so horses within 10 pounds of the 1996 2-year-old high-weight are those who raced successfully against tough competition.) This year, there are three dual qualifiers in the field: Court Vision, Pyro and Tale of Ekati.
A word of caution: Many experts are not sold on the dual-qualifier method because it penalizes lightly raced, improving horses like 1992 Derby winner Lil E. Tee and 1997 Derby winner Grindstone.
-- Finally, Raise a Native has been a potent handicapping angle for the Derby. Fifteen Kentucky Derby winners have had Raise a Native on their sire (paternal) line, including last year’s winner Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Funny Cide. Two other Derby winners carried Raise a Native genes from their broodmare sire line: Barbaro and Real Quiet (who carried him on both lines). This year, give negatives in this category to Big Brown, Bob Black Jack and Gayego, none of whom have Raise a Native genes in either side of his pedigree, and slight knocks to Adriano, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory and Z Fortune, who have Raise a Native genes only from their dam’s side.";
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Form -- shorthand for the way a horse has run in its most recent races -- looks deceptively simple to evaluate, but this factor contains numerous traps for the handicapper.
Although it's better to enter a big race off several strong efforts, horses are not machines and there is no guarantee that a contestant's last race will be repeated on race day.
Likewise, horses that have run poorly in their recent races can suddenly rediscover that winning formula (Remember 1995 winner Thunder Gulch, who captured the Derby at odds of better than 24-1 after finishing off the board in the Blue Grass Stakes in his prior start?). And there's always the dangerous improving horse, who can turn in the race of a lifetime when you least suspect it.
Nonetheless, horses who enter the Derby off several strong efforts (finishing within 2 lengths of the winner) in recent races receive high marks in this category: Behindatthebar, Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Denis of Cork, Eight Belles, Gayego, Recapturetheglory.
Neutral ratings go to horses with one good race in their last two starts: Adriano, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Monba, Pyro, Smooth Air, Tale of Ekati, Visionaire and Z Fortune.
Negatives for the rest of the field. ";
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The Derby points a white-hot spotlight on riders, and it can be dazzling to those who never have stood in its glare before. Being tongue-tied in interviews is one thing, but if a rider's nervousness and excitement makes even the slightest impact on his or her judgment, the results on the racetrack are likely to be disappointing.
We’ll give the strongest push to those horses with riders that have won the Derby: Adriano (Edgar Prado), Big Brown (Kent Desormeaux), Denis of Cork (Calvin Borel), Gayego (Mike Smith),
We’ll give horses whose riders have positive Derby experience – i.e. have come close without winning – a passing grade. That covers Colonel John (Corey Nakatani), Cowboy Cal (John Velazquez), Monba (Ramon Dominguez) and Z Fortune (Robby Albarado). Also, I’m going to make an exception and put the horse ridden by the nation’s leading rider – Court Vision (Garrett Gomez) -- in this category as well.
Negative marks for the others, whose riders have either finished up the track or have never experienced the thrill of the “fastest two minutes in sports.” ";
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Unlike the jockeys, who will make any mistakes in the blink of an eye, trainers make their errors – if any – in the weeks before the race.
Some fine horsemen and horsewomen have been thrown off their game by the unaccustomed scrutiny they face once it becomes clear that there’s a legitimate Derby prospect in the barn. Suddenly, instead of the quiet thudding of hoofbeats, the trainer is facing a phalanx of microphones and fielding endless questions about everything from choice of horseshoes to whether that last workout wasn’t just a tad bit slow.
The bottom line is that some trainers will become overly cautious in their preparations, overlooking an important detail or forgetting to pass a key piece of information to an exercise rider. The result may not be disastrous, but even the slightest misstep can be enough to get your horse beat.
Even better than having survived previous Derbies is having won one or more races. That marks that rare trainer who will have his runner tuned up like a Maseratti on the first Saturday in May.
Give plusses to the horses in this year’s field whose trainers have Derby wins on their resume: Big Truck and Tale of Ekati (Barclay Tagg won in 2003), Cool Coal Man and Anak Nakal (Nick Zito won in 1991 and 1994); and Visionaire (Michael Matz).
Slight deductions go to the horses whose trainers either have positive Triple Crown experience or have shined in such high-profile spots as the Breeders’ Cup: Pyro and Z Fortune (Steve Asmussen); Big Brown (Richard Dutrow Jr.); Court Vision and Z Humor (Bill Mott); Eight Belles (Larry Jones); Recapturetheglory (Louis Roussel III); and Cowboy Cal and Monba (Todd Pletcher).
Let’s also put Colonel John in this category, since his trainer, Eoin Harty, was longtime assistant to three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert.
All others draw a negative in this category."; spt_KentuckyDerby08[i++] = new Array("http://msnbc.msn.com/id/24342687","Picks","","","","", "sub", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); // END editorial data