// BEGIN editorial data var i = 0; var KentuckyDerby06 = new Array(); KentuckyDerby06.ID = "KentuckyDerby06"; KentuckyDerby06.ID_WB = 12254143; KentuckyDerby06.sPubDate = "5/3/2006 11:26:31 PM GMT"; KentuckyDerby06.navsectionID = "3032807" KentuckyDerby06.appFmt = 9; KentuckyDerby06.itemsPerPage = 1; KentuckyDerby06.appWidth = 624; KentuckyDerby06.appHeader = ""; KentuckyDerby06.appNavStyle = 4; KentuckyDerby06.appLayout = 3; KentuckyDerby06.copyHeight = 472; KentuckyDerby06.copyWidth = 475; KentuckyDerby06.copyMargin = 9; KentuckyDerby06.headlineStyle = "color:cc0000;font-weight:bold;"; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","","","","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "", "", "273", "275", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Intro","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/pic_DerbyApp06.jpg","","", "sub", "", "", "", "", "", "", "472", "477", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "document.body.style.margin = '0'; document.body.style.overflow = 'hidden';document.body.style.background='#555555'"; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","The contestants","","","","", "sub", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","A.P. Warrior","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_APWarrior.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 15-1
Pedigree: A.P. Indy/Warrior Queen (Quiet American)
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $377,185
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Owner: Stan E. Fulton
Key facts: Won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) on March 18 in his first start for Shirreffs -- the trainer of last year’s Kentucky Derby shocker Giacomo – but couldn’t keep up with Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby in his next start. He raced closer to the pace than usual in that race, and might be able to cut that 4 3/4-length margin with return to late-running tactics."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Barbaro","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_Barbaro.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "Bill Denver", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 4-1
Pedigree: Dynaformer/La Ville Rouge (Carson City)
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 5 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $849,000
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Trainer: Michael Matz
Owner: Lael Stables
Key facts: Kept spotless record intact with workmanlike victory in the Florida Derby on April 1 despite being bumped at the break. Questions about the quality of the competition he faced in his past two races in the Sunshine State and the timing of his final prep -- no horse has won the Kentucky Derby off a layoff of more than four weeks since Needles did it in 1956 – are the big question marks."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Bluegrass Cat","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_BluegrassCat.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Adam Coglianese", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 30-1
Pedigree: Storm Cat/She’s a Winner (A.P. Indy)
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $361,281
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: WinStar Farm LLC
Key facts: Colt has brilliant 2-year-old campaign, but hasn’t shown the kind of progress at 3 that you look for in a Kentucky Derby winner. He enters the race off two straight losses as the favorite – a two-length defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and a trouncing in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He also lost regular rider John Velazquez, who suffered an injury on April 20. "; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Bob and John","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_BobandJohn.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 12-1
Pedigree: Seeking the Gold/Minister’s Melody (Deputy Minister)
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 4 wins, 1 seconds, 3 thirds
Earnings: $680,070
Jockey: Garrett Gomez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Stonerside Stable
Key facts: You'd expect a Wood Memorial (G1) winner trained by Baffert to be one of the Derby faves, but this guy isn't getting much respect because his speed figures are on the low side (his best Beyer is a 102). But Gomez picked this colt over Baffert's runaway Blue Grass winner Sinister Minister, and he looks like a horse who will appreciate the distance, with two 1 1/8 mile scores to his credit"; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Brother Derek","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_brotherderek.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 3-1
Pedigree: Benchmark/Miss Soft Sell (Siyah Kalem)
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 6 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $1,162,080
Jockey: Alex Solis
Trainer: Dan Hendricks
Owner: Cecil N. Peacock
Key facts: Already has a pair of Grade 1 victories under his belt – the Hollywood Futurity and the Santa Anita Derby -- and is likely to go off as the favorite. He wasn’t really tested in the latter and seems likely to improve on the 108 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned that day. Skeptics question his front-running tactics and ability to handle a 20-horse field after facing abbreviated casts in Southern California."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Cause to Believe","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_CausetoBelieve%20.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Garry Jones", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 50-1
Pedigree: Maria’s Mon/Imaginary Cat (Storm Cat)
Lifetime starts: 10
Record: 6 wins, 3 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $390,565
Jockey: Russell Baze
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Owner: Peter and Pat Redekop, B.C. Ltd.
Key facts: It’s possible to see the glass as half-full or half-empty with this Northern California-based colt. He checked in a non-threatening third -- beaten 10 1/4 lengths -- behind Sweetnorthernsaint in the Illinois Derby, but the slow pace may have compromised him that day. And he did beat subsequent Blue Grass winner Sinister Minister handily in his prior start."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Deputy Glitters","","","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 50-1
Pedigree: Deputy Commander/Glitters (Glitterman)
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 2 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds
Earnings: $205,548
Jockey: Jose Lezcano
Trainer: Tom Albertrani
Owner: Joseph Lacombe Stable Inc.
Key facts: Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner got rude awakening in the Wood Memorial, finishing 15 lengths behind Bob and John. He may not have cared for the wet track -- he also got creamed in his only other start in the slop -- or he may not be good enough to compete with the best 3-year-olds, but at least there’s a plausible scenario for a rebound."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Flashy Bull","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_FlashyBull.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Bill Denver", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 50-1
Pedigree: Holy Bull/Iridescence (Mt. Livermore)
Lifetime starts: 9
Record: 1 win, 4 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $159,650
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, LLC
Key facts: Colt has only a maiden victory to his credit and needs a few defections to get into the race, but he has finished close to some good horses without winning, including Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat and Sharp Humor. But even if you draw a line through his poor effort in the Florida Derby, when he was steadied on the first turn, it’s hard to envision him capturing the big game."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Jazil","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_Jazil.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "John Sommers Ii", "Reuters", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 30-1
Pedigree: Seeking the Gold/Better Than Honour (Deputy Minister)
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 1 win, 3 seconds, 0 third
Earnings: $192,217
Jockey: Fernando Jara
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Owner: Shadwell Stable
Key facts: Flying finish to be second -- 1 1/2 lengths behind Bob and John -- in the Wood Memorial (G1) was eye-catching, as he was still far back in mid-stretch. That might have been illusory, since the leaders were laboring over a tiring sloppy track that day at Aqueduct, but this colt sure has the look of one who will get the Derby distance. Trainer nearly hit gold last year with Derby runner-up Closing Argument."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Keyed Entry","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_KeyedEntry.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "Bill Denver", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 30-1
Pedigree: Honor and Glory/Ava Knowsthecode (Cryptoclearance)
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $247,000
Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Owner: Starlight Stables, Paul and H.L. Saylor
Key facts: Colt earned a 110 Beyer –- second highest in the field -– three starts back in the Hutcheson Stakes, but was beaten in two subsequent starts in New York when trying to stretch his speed. His front-running style and possible distance limitations make it tough to get too excited about him in the Derby, but he never has been beaten by more than two lengths and with just five starts is eligible to improve."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Lawyer Ron","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_LawyerRon.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Danny Johnston", "AP", "298", "201", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 4-1
Pedigree: Langfuhr/Donation (Lord Avie)
Lifetime starts: 14
Record: 7 wins, 1 seconds, 3 thirds
Earnings: $1,220,008
Jockey: John McKee
Trainer: Robert Holthus
Owner: Estate of James T. Hines Jr.
Key facts: This year's overachiever in the mold of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex has won six straight and is undefeated on fast dirt tracks. He's a versatile short, having shown a new dimension in his last two victories -– including the Arkansas Derby (G2) -- by hanging back early and then mowing opponents down at his leisure. That can only help his chances in speed-laden Derby lineup. "; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Point Determined","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_PointDetermined.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "", "AP", "298", "201", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 12-1
Pedigree: Point Given/Merengue (Broad Brush)
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 2 wins, 3 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $260,330
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Robert and Beverly Lewis Trust
Key facts: Son of Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner will try to fill the Triple Crown hole in sire's resumé. To do that, he'll need to turn the tables on Brother Derek, who held him safe in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and conquer a number of new shooters with better credentials than his. On the plus side, he did finish well in the major West Coast prep and is showing steady improvement for a trainer who knows how to win this race."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Private Vow","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_PrivateVow.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 50-1
Pedigree: Broken Vow/Smooth as Silk (Deputy Minister)
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $482,508
Jockey: Sean Bridgmohan
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Mike McCarty
Key facts: Colt was one of the better 2-year-olds in the country last year, but he has yet to show that he belongs in the top ranks as a 3-year-old. That’s in part attributable to the fact that he’s only run twice this year, a light campaign that hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Sunny’s Halo in 1983. Trainer is an up-and-comer, though, and the third start back often produces a top effort."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Seaside Retreat","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_SeasideRetreat.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "John Sommers Ii", "Reuters", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 50-1
Pedigree: King Cugat/Shes Like Rio (Boundary)
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $266,632
Jockey: Patrick Husbands
Trainer: Mark Casse
Owner: W.S. Farish Jr.
Key facts: Key facts: Has been trounced twice, sandwiched around a runner-up effort in the Lane’s End Stakes, since arriving in the States from Canada. The Lane’s End (formerly known as the Spiral and Jim Beams Stakes) isn’t generally a significant Derby prep, and this year’s edition seemed particularly lackluster, so even if you’re willing to forgive his subsequent debacle in the Blue Grass he seems up against it."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Sharp Humor","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_SharpHumor.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "Matthew Stockman", "Getty Images", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 20-1
Pedigree: Distorted Humor/Bellona (Hansel)
Lifetime starts: 7
Record: 4 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Earnings: $456,410
Jockey: Mark Guidry
Trainer: Dale Romans
Owner: Purdedel Stable
Key facts: Finished second to Barbaro in the Florida Derby in his first start around two turns, an experience that should help him as he tries to carry his speed another 1/8th of a mile. The bad news is he never has won a race from off the pace, and he figures to have plenty of company up front if he employs his usual go-to-the-front style. "; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Showing Up","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_ShowingUp.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "298", "201", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 20-1
Pedigree: Strategic Mission/Ava Knowsthecode (Cryptoclearance)
Lifetime starts: 3
Record: 3 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $240,500
Jockey: Cornelio Velasquez
Trainer: Barclay Tagg
Owner: Lael Stables
Key facts: Needed a strong showing in the Lexington Stakes to get in the Derby, and he delivered it, winning by more than a length over Gotham Stakes winner Like Now. It’s hard to imagine he’s got enough seasoning to win this race off just three lifetime starts, but can’t blame connections for taking a shot with an unbeaten colt, particularly one trained by the conditioner of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Sinister Minister","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_SinisterMinister.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "James Crisp", "AP", "298", "201", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 12-1
Pedigree: Old Trieste/Sweet Minister (The Prime Minister)
Lifetime starts: 5
Record: 2 wins, 1 seconds, 0 third
Earnings: $503,880
Jockey: Victor Espinosa
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Owner: Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable
Key facts: Earned a 116 Beyer Speed Figure -– the highest of any contender -- in his dominating gate-to-wire score in the Blue Grass Stakes. Colt is a “runaway freight train” in the words of his trainer and probably will be quickest from the gate, but the Derby is tough to win on the front end, particularly with an abundance of speed in the field. Backers also have to worry about the possibility of a “bounce” – a subpar race following a huge effort."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Steppenwolfer","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_Steppenwolfer.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Ed Reinke", "AP", "201", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 30-1
Pedigree: Aptitude/Wolfer (Wolf Power)
Lifetime starts: 8
Record: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 2 third
Earnings: $361,520
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: Daniel Peitz
Owner: Robert E. and Lawana L. Low
Key facts: Come-from-behind runner hasn’t been able to catch Lawyer Ron in his last three races in Arkansas, but he hasn’t been far back in any of those efforts. The change in tracks and added distance could help him make up that deficit, and his late-running style should play well in speed-laden field. Still, speed figures suggest he’ll need to uncork a lifetime best to have a chance at winning."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Storm Treasure","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_StormTreasure.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "left", "Al Behrman", "AP", "298", "201", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 50-1
Pedigree: Storm Boot/Boogie Beach Blues (Cure the Blues)
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 1 win, 4 seconds, 0 thirds
Earnings: $210,745
Jockey: TBA
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Owner: Mike McCarty
Key facts: Colt burst on the Derby scene with his distant runner-up finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at odds of better than 65-1. He has only a maiden victory to his credit, but the upside is that it came at Churchill Downs and his late foot should play well in here. Hard to see him winning it unless there’s a complete pace meltdown, but he’s an interesting possibility to hit the board at a big price."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Sweetnorthernsaint","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/Projects/KentuckyDerby/KentuckyDerby_06/DerbyApp06_Sweetnorthernsaint.standard.jpg","","", "", "", "", "", "right", "", "", "203", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Morning line odds: 10-1
Pedigree: Sweetsouthernsaint/Ice Beauty (Waquoit)
Lifetime starts: 6
Record: 3 wins, 0 seconds, 1 third
Earnings: $377,000
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
Trainer: Michael Trombetta
Owner: Joseph J. Balsamo and Ted Theos
Key facts: Gelding looked good rolling to 9 1/4-length victory in the Illinois Derby (G2) on April 8. He got an easy lead that day, however, and it’s hard to see that happening on May 6 with Sinister Minister and Sharp Humor in the lineup. But he has given hints in his last two races that he might be able to “rate” off the pace and he has finished strongly in all his races. An interesting possibility."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","The track","","http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Art/SPORTS/050502/DerbyTrack.standard.jpg","","", "sub", "", "", "", "right", "", "", "216", "298", "#000000", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
The Kentucky Derby is a 1 1/4-mile race for 3-year-olds on the dirty track, which is composed of 75 percent sand, 20 percent silt and 5 percent clay. The race begins at the top of the stretch, which gives jockeys time to move their mounts in before the first turn. But with up to 20 starters, horses that start outside risk being caught wide, and horses on the inside are in danger of getting squeezed as the pack tightens up. The early fractions of the Derby are usually quick and the stretch is long -- 1,234 feet -- both of which favor runners that come from off the pace."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","The factors","","","","", "sub", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
There is no limit on the factors that can be considered in handicapping a race — some experts even try to compensate for the wind when evaluating a previous performance by a horse. But for today, let's confine ourselves to six of the most important considerations.

Click on factors at left to learn more."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Speed and pace","","","","", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
A handicapper who can correctly predict how a race will be run has a much better chance of winning than the horseplayer with no idea which horses will go to the front, which will challenge the leaders turning for home and which will attempt to run down the leaders in the final strides.
The reason, as handicapping pioneer Huey Mahl put it, is that pace makes the race.

The basic theory of pace handicapping is this: The faster a horse runs at the beginning of a race, the less energy it will have for the stretch run. As a general rule, a race in which three or more horses battle for the lead will result in a faster-than-average early pace and set the stage for a come-from-behind horse to win. Conversely, a race in which a lone horse is allowed to set a comfortable pace tends to favor the front-runner or horses that can stay within a length or two of the lead.

Predicting the early pace in the Derby is a dicey proposition. But with “runaway freight train” Sinister Minister, Sharp Humor and a number of early-pressers in the field, it is almost certain that the early pace will be quicker than average (1:11 1/5 for 6 furlongs since 1990).

So for pace, give negatives to the aforementioned front-runners and a plus to the off-the-pace runners: A.P. Warrior, Bluegrass Cat, Bob and John, Cause to Believe, Flashy Bull, Jazil, Lawyer Ron, Point Determined, Seaside Retreat, Showing Up, Steppenwolfer and Storm Treasure.

Horses expected to stalk from a forward position – Barbaro, Brother Derek, Deputy Glitters, Keyed Entry, Private Vow and Sweetnorthernsaint – get a neutral rating.
"; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Class","","","","", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
When racetrackers talk about a horse’s class, they are talking about a combination of natural ability, consistency and heart. Handicappers have tried different approaches to quantify it, such as average earnings per start or the number of victories in Grade I stakes races, which draw the very best horses.

No matter how you define it, though, the Derby has proven a stern class test for young horses who have never run this far. History says it is advisable to favor horses who have raced well against top competition as 2-year-olds -- as measured by a good effort in at least one graded stakes race -- and who have returned to run credibly in similar situations in their 3-year-old year.

Give plusses in this category to A.P. Warrior, Bluegrass Cat, Bob and John, Brother Derek, Flashy Bull, Private Vow and Seaside Retreat.

Negatives to all the the others."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Pedigree","","","","", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Pedigree analysis has lost a lot of its luster in recent two years, when several horses whose bloodlines said they would never last 1 1/4 miles nevertheless captured the Derby.

But given the performance of the \"dosage\" index and \"center of distribution\" model over previous decades, it’s probably wise not to dismiss this line of inquiry just yet.

This is why it pays to have at least a passing acquaintance with such arcane terms as \"dosage\" and \"dual qualifier.\"

-- Dosage, a way of measuring stamina in a pedigree, has proven an accurate yardstick, as all but four Derby winners since 1929 has had a “dosage index” of 4.00 or less (Strike The Gold interrupted the streak in 1991, followed by victories by Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999) and Giacomo (2005). Unfortunately, not too many horses with high dosage even run in the Derby, and this year only one entrant, Lawyer Ron (4.14), has a dosage indexes higher than 4.00. One other horse – Sinister Minister – has a dosage index of exactly 4.00.

-- As a cross check of dosage, we’ll factor in Lee Tomlinson’s endurance ratings, giving negatives to horses who are rated lower than 300: Bob and John (295), Point Determined (297), Sweetnorthernsaint (285); Storm Treasures (291), Jazil (295), Seaside Retreat (287) and Flashy Bull (229).

-- A related indicator to the dosage index is the \"dual qualifier\" method, which requires that a horse have the proper dosage and to have been within 10 pounds of the high-weight on the Experimental Free Handicap as a 2-year-old. (The Experimental Free Handicap is an attempt by a panel of experts to even out horses in a particular class by assigning greater weights to the best horses and less to their inferiors, so horses within 10 pounds of the 1996 2-year-old high-weight are those who raced successfully against tough competition.) This year, there are two dual qualifiers in the field: Brother Derek and Private Vow. A word of caution: Many experts are not sold on the dual-qualifier method because it penalizes lightly raced, improving horses like 1992 Derby winner Lil E. Tee and 1997 Derby winner Grindstone.

In this category, we’ll give strong plusses to \"dual qualifiers\" who have no negatives in the other category – Brother Derek and Private Vow.

Neutral ratings go to horses with no negatives in the first two categories – A.P. Warrior, Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat, Cause to Believe, Deputy Glitters, Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor, Showing Up and Steppenwolfer.

Negatives to the remainder of the field."; KentuckyDerby06[i++] = new Array("","Form","","","","", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", ""); KentuckyDerby06[i-1].body = "
Form -- shorthand for the way a horse has run in its most recent races -- looks deceptively simple to evaluate, but this factor contains numerous traps for the handicapper.

Although it's better to enter a big race off several strong efforts, horses are not machines and there is no guarantee that a contestant's last race will be repeated on race day.

Likewise, horses that have run poorly in their recent races can suddenly rediscover that winning formula (Remember 1995 winner Thunder Gulch, who captured the Derby at odds of better than 24-1 after finishing off the board in the Blue Grass Stakes in his prior start?). And there's always the dangerous improving horse, who can turn in the race of a lifetime when you least suspect it.

Nonetheless, horses who enter the Derby off several strong efforts (finishing 3 lengths or fewer behind the winner) in their recent races receive high marks in this category: Barbaro, Bob and John, Brother Derek, Keyed Entry, Lawyer Ron, Sharp Humor, Showing Up and Sweetnorthernsaint.

We’ll give a slightly less enthusiastic push to Point Determined and Steppenwolfer, both of whom missed qualifying by just a quarter length, and to Sinister Minister, who likely would have qualified if he hadn’t bounced off the rail twice in the stretch of the California Derby.

Neutral ratings go to horses with one such race in their last two starts: A.P. Warrior, Bluegrass Cat, Cause to Believe, Deputy Glitters, Flashy Bull, Jazil and Seaside Retreat.

Negatives go to the remaining horses.
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The Derby points a white-hot spotlight on riders, and it can be dazzling to those who never have stood in its glare before. Being tongue-tied in interviews is one thing, but if a rider's nervousness and excitement makes even the slightest impact on his or her judgment, the results on the racetrack are likely to be disappointing.

We’ll give the strongest push to those horses with riders that have won the Derby: Flashy Bull (Mike Smith); Keyed Entry (Patrick Valenzuela, 1989); Sinister Minister (Victor Espinoza, 2002); and Sweetnorthernsaint (Kent Desormeaux, 1998 and 2000).

Give slightly tempered positives to horses with riders who have won other Triple Crown races – Barbaro (Edgar Prado), Brother Derek (Alex Solis).

Give those with positive Derby experience – i.e. have come close without winning – a passing grade. That covers A.P. Warrior (Corey Nakatani), Bluegrass Cat (Ramon Dominguez), Point Determined (Rafael Bejarano) and Showing Up (Cornelio Velazquez).

Negative marks for the others, whose riders have either finished up the track or have never experienced the thrill of the “fastest two minutes in sports.”
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Unlike the jockeys, who will make any mistakes in the blink of an eye, trainers make their errors – if any – in the weeks before the race.
Some fine horsemen and horsewomen have been thrown off their game by the unaccustomed scrutiny they face once it becomes clear that there’s a legitimate Derby prospect in the barn. Suddenly, instead of the quiet thudding of hoofbeats, the trainer is facing a phalanx of microphones and fielding endless questions about everything from choice of horseshoes to whether that last workout wasn’t just a tad bit slow.

The bottom line is that some trainers will become overly cautious in their preparations, overlooking an important detail or forgetting to pass a key piece of information to an exercise rider. The result may not be disastrous, but even the slightest misstep can be enough to get your horse beat.

Even better than having survived previous Derbies is having won one or more races. That marks that rare trainer who will have his runner tuned up like a Maseratti on the first Saturday in May.

Give plusses to the horses of the three trainers who have previously won the Derby, Bob Baffert (Bob and John, Point Determined and Sinister Minister), John Shirreffs (A.P. Warrior) and Barclay Tagg (Showing Up.

Give slightly less enthusiastic positive marks to trainers who either have positive Triple Crown experience or have shined in such high-profile spots as the Breeders’ Cup: Tom Albertrani (Deputy Glitters), Kiaran McGlaughlin (Flash Bull and Jazil), Todd Pletcher (Bluegrass Cat, Keyed Entry and Sunriver) and Dale Romans (Sharp Humor).

All others draw a negative in this category.
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